echoes is a 2-year research and communication project funded by the Swiss National Science Fund to explore climate change impact scenarios through climate modeling, speculative design and immersive installations.
Climate change escalates weather extremes. Elevated global temperatures amplify heatwaves, producing longer and more frequent periods of extreme heat. Alterations in atmospheric circulation patterns and oceanic conditions contribute to an increased occurrence and intensity of such extreme weather events, including hurricanes, floods, and droughts.
Megadroughts are persistent, multi-year droughts of exceptional severity, duration or spatial extent, causing major societal and ecological disruptions. The last major megadrought in Europe dates back to the late 18th century, but recent simulations show that Europe is at hight risk of experiencing multi-decadal megadroughts by the end of the century [1]. Since no megadrought has been observed in Europe in the recent instrumental record we lack knowledge about their potential impact, and - especially in the Alps - on the role glaciers and snow might play in terms of mitigation. Therefore, we can only speculate about what might happen and build scenarios that allow for a better understanding of the impacts.
MEGADROUGHTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FUTURE OF WATER
With four major European rivers originating in the country, Switzerland is often referred to as the “water tower of Europe“. The Rhine, the Rhone, the Inn (contributing to the Danube) and the Ticino (emptying into the Po) are largely fed by waters coming from the Alps. [4] The mountains are key in producing, capturing and circulating water.
Simulating impacts across systems ranging from drinking water to river transportation to agriculture and the global food chain, from energy production to tree mortality and wildfires to species movement, the project investigates possible futures and politics of water.
SOPHISTICATED SUPERCOMPUTING MEETS SPECULATIVE DESIGN
In a multi-disciplinary approach that combines methods from both design and science, the project centers around a core process of joint scenario generation. Dovetailing speculative design with numerical modeling, ECHOES will draft outlooks for possible futures in the Alps. Evolving scenarios in congruence with insights from three scientific research projects ensures scientific rigor, producing ecologically sound speculations [2].
Unraveling the complexity of large climatic phenomena and their interactions across systems and scales, the project explores the ripple effects of megadroughts in mountain ecosystems, and their echoes in more-than-human systems. In the process of simulating impacts from drought events and imagining future scenarios, advanced super-computing and high-resolution impact modeling is being paired with world-building and speculative design.
WHAT-IF HYPOTHESES
Speculative design poses the question “what if“ to explore alternative futures, leveraging the transformative power of speculation in unlocking imagination. Through immersive storytelling and the power of images, complex connections can be rendered comprehensible. Through means of provocation, storytelling and world-building, speculative design instigates debate, raises questions, and so enables the public as active agents of the future.
Bearing in mind that the future is not a pre-given, but constructed through actions of the present means that multiple futures are possible. In the context of the project, working with multiple possible futures instead of a singular path ahead communicates ecological responsibility and conveys a sense of agency. [3]
DATA & PARTNER PROJECTS
Scientific insights and data will come from three on-going research projects. The SNF-funded MegaWat project and the WSL-funded EMERGE project investigate the impact of megadroughts on Europe's mountain systems, and simultaneously, the TipESM project, explores how this cascades down to climate tipping points and affects mountain biodiversity.
Communicating the impacts of extreme weather remains challenging, as such events are either outside the imagination of people or so complex that conveying them becomes difficult. By building onto the simulated scenarios and visualizing the nuanced responses in mountain ecosystems the project connects individual elements into a larger narrative, transforming raw data into tangible emotional realities.
The project will culminate in an exhibition showcasing the immersive installation in 2026, together with the launch of a publication.
[1] Cook, B.I., Smerdon, J.E., Cook, E.R. et al. (2022), Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene. Nat Rev Earth Environ 3, 741–757. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1
[2,3] Falkeis, S. (2023). Turning the Ecological Gears, Exhibition Catalogue.
[4] Weingartner, R., Viviroli, D. and Schädler, B. (2007), Water resources in mountain regions: a methodological approach to assess the water balance in a highland-lowland-system. Hydrol. Process., 21: 578-585. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6268